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Decoding Bajaj Broking’s Yearly Strategy Report for CY25

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Synopsis:

Bajaj Broking’s CY25 Strategy Report highlights a positive market outlook with Nifty targeting 28,700. Key topics include multi-dimensional analysis, sectoral performance insights, top stock recommendations, and opportunities driven by global and domestic trends. Learn how to optimize your portfolio.

A Positive Market Outlook for CY25

Bajaj Broking’s CY25 strategy reaffirms a bullish stance for the Indian equity market. Following nine consecutive years of market gains, the Nifty is projected to rise further, aiming for a target of 28,700. This represents an anticipated 19% return over the next 12 months. Despite the corrective phase in late CY24, the primary trend remains robust, driven by strong domestic and global factors.

Key support levels for Nifty are pegged at 22,500-21,700, with analysts confident that the index won’t sustain below these levels. Investors are advised to leverage the "buy-on-dips" strategy during corrections to accumulate high-quality stocks.

Multi-Dimensional Market Analysis

To ensure an unbiased outlook, Bajaj Broking implemented a multi-dimensional analytical framework. The approach integrates:

Bottom-Up Stock Screening: Categorizing Nifty constituents into outperformers, bargain buys, market performers, and underperformers.

Conventional Charting Techniques: Verifying targets through top-down analysis.

Global Market Trends: Leveraging insights from the US presidential election cycle and MSCI index performance.

Bottom-Up Stock Categorization

The Nifty analysis reveals:

  • Outperformers: 19 stocks (56.57% weightage), showing structural turnaround potential.
  • Market Performers: 14 stocks (25.37% weightage), likely to move in tandem with the index.
  • Bargain Buys: 10 stocks (13.44% weightage), poised for a fresh uptrend.
  • Underperformers: 7 stocks (4.62% weightage), expected to consolidate or decline.

This categorization underlines a positive momentum for 70% of index constituents, reinforcing the bullish outlook.

Sectoral Insights and Opportunities

The report identifies key sectors that are poised to perform in CY25:

Banking

The Bank Nifty is expected to climb to 62,500, supported by higher highs and lows on yearly charts. The key support zone is at 47,000-47,500. Investors should capitalize on corrections for entry opportunities.

IT

The IT index, after a 27% gain in CY24, is set to continue its uptrend. The breakout above a long-term rounding formation suggests a target of 52,700. Key support lies between 39,000-38,000.

Realty

The Realty Index has maintained a positive bias with a 40% gain in CY24. A bullish flag breakout positions the index for a target of 1,340. The support zone ranges between 950-900.

Infrastructure

The Nifty Infra index is projected to reach 10,200, resuming its long-term uptrend after a minor correction. Key support levels are set at 7,400-7,800.

Emerging Markets

India is set to lead the outperformance among emerging markets. The MSCI India index has rebounded from its lower channel, signaling a strong upside in CY25.

Global and Domestic Drivers

Global Trends

US Presidential Election Cycle: Historical data shows an average return of 17%-37% in the year following a US election, with India’s Sensex delivering an impressive 37% average.

  • Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: Anticipated monetary easing is likely to boost emerging markets, including India.
  • Geopolitical Factors: Stable crude oil prices and global trade dynamics could favor India.

Domestic Trends

Robust SIP Flows: The consistent rise in systematic investment plan (SIP) contributions reflects increasing financial awareness and market resilience.

  • Above-Average Monsoon: Strong agricultural productivity is expected to fuel rural consumption and economic stability.
  • Policy Reforms: The Union Budget and RBI’s potential rate cuts could catalyze growth in interest-rate-sensitive sectors.

Top Stock Picks for CY25

Bajaj Broking’s report features five top stock recommendations, backed by rigorous technical and fundamental analysis:

Prestige Estates

  • Buying Range: ₹1810 - ₹1880
  • Target: ₹2290
  • Upside: 24%
  • Time Horizon: 12 Months

Breakout above bullish flag formation.

Diversified business model with a strong launch pipeline.

HUDCO

  • Buying Range: ₹238 - ₹249
  • Target: ₹314
  • Upside: 29%
  • Time Horizon: 12 Months

Rebound from long-term EMA with robust urban infrastructure financing opportunities.

Laurus Labs

  • Buying Range: ₹555 - ₹575
  • Target: ₹710
  • Upside: 26%
  • Time Horizon: 12 Months

Positioned for growth in the CDMO and synthesis segments.

HSCL

  • Buying Range: ₹525 - ₹545
  • Target: ₹687
  • Upside: 28%
  • Time Horizon: 12 Months

Breakout above long-term supply line; strong growth trajectory in specialty chemicals.

ITD Cementation

  • Buying Range: ₹525 - ₹545
  • Target: ₹687
  • Upside: 28%
  • Time Horizon: 12 Months

Cup-and-handle pattern breakout; robust order pipeline in infrastructure projects.

Key Risks and Mitigation Strategies

Risks

  • Inflationary Pressures: Sticky inflation could limit monetary easing by the RBI.h
  • Global Uncertainty: Geopolitical tensions and crude price volatility may impact market sentiment.
  • Earnings Slowdown: Weak urban and rural demand could affect corporate profitability.

Mitigation

  • Diversified portfolio allocation.
  • Focus on quality stocks with strong fundamentals.
  • Utilize staggered investment strategies during corrections.

Conclusion

Bajaj Broking’s CY25 Strategy Report offers a comprehensive roadmap for navigating the financial markets. With a multi-dimensional analysis framework, robust sectoral insights, and carefully curated stock recommendations, the report underscores the potential for sustained market gains. Investors are encouraged to align their portfolios with these insights to optimize returns while managing risks effectively.

By understanding global trends, leveraging domestic opportunities, and focusing on strategic investments, CY25 promises to be a year of significant wealth creation for informed investors.

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