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China announces the removal of a 13% export tax rebate on Aluminium and Copper, affecting prices and impacting major Indian metal companies like NALCO, Vedanta, and Hindalco. LME Aluminium prices saw a surge by 5.5%.
In a recent announcement, China has declared that the export tax rebate on Aluminium and Copper will be abolished from December 1, 2024. This policy change is set to redirect the dynamics of the metal export market, with significant implications for Indian metal giants such as NALCO Ltd., Vedanta Ltd., and Hindalco Ltd.
End of a 13% Export Tax Rebate: Direct impact on China’s Aluminium and Copper Exports.
Increase in LME Aluminium Prices: Prices surged up to 8.5% before settling at a gain of 5.5%.
Potential Decline in Chinese Exports: Expected to bolster Aluminium prices starting December.
Impact on Indian Metal Companies: Vedanta and Hindalco may experience shifts in their Aluminium business dynamics; NALCO could see changes in both the Aluminium and Alumina sectors.
The cessation of the rebate, which previously stood at 13%, marks a pivot in China's export strategy, likely influenced by ongoing global trade tensions and internal economic policies. Historically, China has been a significant exporter of these metals, accounting for 15% to 16% of its total production and 20% to 22% of the global production outside China.
In 2023, China exported 5.7 million tonnes of Aluminium, and with the current year's shipments already up by 17%, the expected total is poised to reach 6.6 million tonnes. The reduction of the rebate is projected to decrease these figures substantially in the coming year, potentially escalating market prices and reducing the global oversupply.
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For Indian companies, this shift could resonate differently across their portfolios:
Vedanta Ltd. relies significantly on Aluminium, which forms a substantial part of its business after zinc. The change in export dynamics could affect pricing and availability, impacting their cost structures and profitability.
Hindalco Ltd., with its substantial stake through Novelis in the global Aluminium market, could face alterations in its supply chain and earnings metrics, particularly in the EBITDA contributed by its Indian Aluminium operations.
NALCO Ltd., which has Aluminium and Alumina as its core components, might experience volatility in its share prices and operational strategies as market conditions adjust.
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In response to the announcement, the share prices for these companies have shown a downward trend:
NALCO share price has dropped by 6% over the past month.
Vedanta and Hindalco have seen declines of 10% and 17% respectively.
This move by China could serve as a strategic pivot point for the global Aluminium and Copper markets, prompting companies to reassess their positions and strategies in light of the upcoming changes. As these developments unfold, the NALCO share price, along with those of its peers, will be crucial indicators of the market's reaction to China's new policy direction.
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