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Indian banks recorded a significant trend shift as deposit growth outpaced credit growth for the first time since April 2022. This new dynamic impacts banking sector share price and financial strategies.
The Indian banking sector has reported a significant trend reversal, with deposit growth surpassing credit growth as of October 18, 2024, marking the first instance of this shift since April 2022. This change in banking dynamics reflects broader economic shifts and is likely to influence upcoming strategies in the sector.
For the year-to-date (YTD) period, deposit growth consistently exceeded credit growth. Deposits rose by 6.5% compared to the previous year, while credit growth stood at a lower 4.9%. This trend indicates a shift in consumer behaviour, with increased savings aligning with the seasonal demand seen in the festive period.
Money supply (M3) saw a year-on-year (YOY) increase of 11.06%, its highest growth rate in 12 fortnights. However, overall credit growth has decelerated, recording 11.52% YOY, its lowest in 62 fortnights. This slowdown signals a conservative lending environment, as banks prioritise stability amid economic shifts.
The current deposit base stands at approximately ₹217.3 lakh crore, reflecting a 12.16% YOY increase. However, deposits saw a slight 0.5% decline from the previous fortnight. Meanwhile, advances amount to ₹167.7 lakh crore, a 13.03% YOY rise, though also down by 0.34% fortnightly. The credit-deposit (CD) ratio increased marginally, reaching 77.17% compared to 77.04% a fortnight ago, pointing to balanced liquidity management across the sector.
Weekly data shows a 0.51% decrease in deposits, influenced by a 1.81% fall in demand deposits, likely linked to increased seasonal spending ahead of Diwali. Time deposits also declined by 0.34%, indicating cautious savings amidst the festive season’s expenditure. Food credit rose by 4.8%, while non-food credit saw a slight dip of 0.35%, leading to a 0.34% overall credit decline.
Year-on-year, total deposits reached ₹218.1 lakh crore, up by 11.8%, while advances rose to ₹172.4 lakh crore, reflecting an 11.5% increase. The data indicates a 6% drop in food credit, while non-food credit grew by 11.54%, demonstrating steady demand in non-food sectors.
The recent trend of deposit growth exceeding credit growth suggests a pivotal change in the Indian banking sector. With deposit accumulation outpacing loans, banks may recalibrate strategies to leverage this shift, potentially impacting the banking sector share price.
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