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Market Reactions: Post Union Budget 2025 Analysis

The Union Budget 2025-26, presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, triggered high volatility in the Indian stock market. Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 traded lower amid fluctuations, reflecting mixed investor sentiment. Key sectors like insurance, FMCG, power, infrastructure, and banking remained in focus as traders assessed the Budget's impact.

Key Highlights and Fiscal Policies Post Budget 2025

  • Fiscal Deficit Target: The government has set a fiscal deficit target of 4.4% of GDP for FY26, down from a revised 4.8% for FY25.

  • Market Borrowings: The government plans to borrow ₹14.82 lakh crore from the market to finance the deficit, up from ₹14.01 lakh crore in the current year.

  • Bond Yield Impact: The 10-year benchmark bond yield is expected to rise as market borrowing surpasses estimates.

  • Telecom & Digital Infrastructure: The announcement of 50,000 Atal Tinkering Laboratories (ATLs) and broadband connectivity in secondary government schools can benefit telecom giants.

  • Manufacturing Boost: Certain companies are also poised to gain from the government's emphasis on strengthening domestic manufacturing to integrate India into global supply chains.

  • Railway Sector Impact: Railway stocks declined by up to 6% as the Budget lacked significant sectoral announcements.

  • FMCG & Consumption Stocks: The increase in the income tax exemption limit to ₹12 lakh boosted FMCG stocks, with major players like HUL, ITC, Dabur, and Nestle gaining traction.

  • Banking Sector: Private sector, and public sector banks are also expected to benefit from the enhancement of the short-term loan limit under the Kisan Credit Card (KCC) scheme from ₹3 lakh to ₹5 lakh.

  • Power & Renewable Energy: Adani Power surged on 1st Feb’25 following the announcement of power sector reforms, including amendments to nuclear energy regulations and plans to operationalize small modular reactors (SMRs).

  • EV & Auto Stocks: Battery and auto stocks saw gains as the Budget expanded duty exemptions to 35 additional goods used in EV battery manufacturing.

Sector-wise Market Performance and Impact Analysis over Budget

  • Insurance: Stocks in the insurance sector, including SBI Life, HDFC Life, ICICI Lombard, and ICICI Prudential, rallied following the announcement of an FDI limit hike to 100%.

  • FMCG: Consumer goods companies like HUL, ITC, Dabur, and Nestle gained traction due to increased disposable income from tax relief measures.

  • Telecom & Digital Infrastructure: Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel, and Vodafone Idea are set to benefit from broadband connectivity expansion in government schools.

  • Banking & Financial Services: HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, SBI, and other banks will see increased lending due to the raised loan limit under the Kisan Credit Card scheme.

  • Manufacturing: Reliance Industries and Siemens India stand to gain from the government’s focus on boosting domestic production.

  • Railway Sector: Stocks such as Rail Vikas Nigam, Titagarh Rail Systems, and IRFC declined up to 6% due to the lack of significant announcements for the sector.

  • Power & Energy: Adani Power and other energy companies gained after the government announced new policies to strengthen the power sector.

  • EV & Auto: Stocks in the electric vehicle and auto sectors rose following new duty exemptions for EV battery components.

Tourism & Aviation: Stocks like Lemon Tree Hotels, ITDC, Indigo, GMR Airports, and SpiceJet gained due to increased investment in tourism and regional air connectivity.

#BudgetSimpleHai

The buzz around the historic 2025 Union Budget continued through the FM’s speech. Here are the highlights:

  • The fiscal deficit is revised to 4.8% of GDP for FY25, with a target of 4.4% for FY26.

  • The market experienced high volatility, with Sensex slipping over 300 points post-Budget speech, followed by a partial recovery in select sectors like FMCG, auto, and real estate.

  • Bond yields are expected to rise as the government announced ₹14.82 lakh crore in market borrowings for FY26.

  • Infrastructure spending remains a key focus, with capital expenditure targeted at ₹10.18 lakh crore to boost economic growth.

Stock Market Response and Trends 

  • Volatility & Indices Movement: Sensex and Nifty 50 saw sharp intraday movements, with Nifty fluctuating in a 2-3% range.

  • Sectoral Winners: FMCG, auto, and real estate stocks gained on the back of higher disposable income and consumer spending expectations.

  • Sectoral Losers: Nifty IT, metals, and PSU banks led declines following the Budget announcement.

  • Insurance Rally: Stocks of insurers like SBI Life, HDFC Life, ICICI Lombard, and ICICI Prudential surged on the FDI limit hike to 100%.

  • Tourism & Aviation: Stocks like Lemon Tree Hotels, ITDC, and airlines such as Indigo, GMR Airports, and SpiceJet gained from tourism infrastructure expansion and UDAN scheme modifications.

Investor Strategies Post-Budget

  • Focus on Domestic Manufacturing: Companies benefiting from localization policies and supply chain integration will likely outperform.

  • Banking & Financial Services: Investors should monitor credit growth trends in both public and private sector banks.

  • Consumption Plays: FMCG and auto stocks stand to gain as increased disposable income drives spending.

  • EV & Green Energy: Expansion in EV battery incentives makes the sector attractive for long-term investment.

  • Telecom & Digital Infrastructure: Broadband and telecom expansion will continue to see government-driven demand growth.

Note: The observations in the key indices (NIFTY50 & SENSEX) are as of 12:50 pm on 1st Feb’25.

Source: Budget 2025 share market impact LIVE Updates: Sensex, Nifty flat amid volatility; income tax bonanza boosts FMCG stocks | Stock Market News

Conclusion 

The Union Budget 2025-26 has set a balanced approach, targeting fiscal consolidation while promoting growth. The market remains volatile as investors digest key policy announcements. Sectors benefiting from tax reforms, infrastructure spending, and industrial incentives are poised for gains, while others adjust to sector-specific implications.

Disclaimer: Investments in the securities market are subject to market risk, read all related documents carefully before investing.

This content is for educational purposes only. Securities quoted are exemplary and not recommendatory.

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