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The RBI’s April 2025 policy meet saw a 25-bps repo rate cut, a shift to an accommodative stance, and regulatory reforms across UPI, co-lending, and gold loans, amid revised growth and inflation forecasts.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its April 2025 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting announced a cut to the repo rate by 25 basis points and shifted its policy stance from ‘Neutral’ to ‘Accommodative’.
This marks the second consecutive rate cut, a move that signals the central bank’s increasing focus on stimulating economic activity in a time of evolving global challenges.
The decision to lower the repo rate - currently the key policy rate at which the RBI lends to commercial banks - indicates the MPC’s intention to support borrowing and liquidity conditions. This comes shortly after Trump-era tariffs came into effect for India and other economies, potentially impacting global trade flows and domestic exports.
While the move may provide relief to borrowers and support business activity, it also suggests the central bank’s increasing vigilance toward external risks and domestic demand dynamics. However, no concrete direction was offered regarding liquidity management, which could remain a watchpoint for market participants.
Also Read: Repo Rate and Reverse Repo Rate: Key Differences
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra underlined that the policy stance has now moved to ‘Accommodative’, indicating a bias towards maintaining current rates or reducing them further if conditions require. The central bank appears focused on creating an environment that can nurture recovery without escalating inflation risks.
This shift also implies that rate hikes are likely off the table for now, which could influence sentiment across debt and equity markets. However, the absence of clarity on liquidity guidance may keep short-term interest rate expectations fluid.
The central bank revised its GDP growth projection for FY26 to 6.5%, a downward adjustment of 20 basis points. Quarterly growth expectations have been pegged at:
This moderation in outlook comes amid cautious optimism, likely reflecting global economic headwinds, evolving geopolitical tensions, and the domestic fiscal landscape.
On the inflation front, the RBI seems comfortable, projecting Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation at 4% for FY26. The quarterly trajectory is:
While the figures stay within the central bank’s tolerance band, the slight uptick in Q4 suggests that the RBI will continue to monitor price pressures closely, especially from food and energy segments.
Governor Malhotra also noted that gross Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) remains robust, which indicates continued international interest in Indian markets. However, net FDI has moderated, largely due to higher repatriation and outbound investments.
Meanwhile, External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) have seen increased inflows compared to the previous year, pointing toward evolving preferences in external financing strategies.
In addition to monetary measures, the RBI also announced six targeted regulatory interventions to address various aspects of banking and payment infrastructure:
The RBI’s April 2025 policy strikes a delicate balance—supporting growth through rate cuts, maintaining a watchful eye on inflation, and enabling structural reforms in financial regulation.
While the accommodative stance provides a signal of continued policy support, the lack of detailed liquidity guidance and muted growth projection leaves some uncertainty in the near term.
Stakeholders across sectors will likely watch how these moves play out in the coming quarters, especially considering external macroeconomic developments and domestic consumption patterns.
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