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RBI Monetary Policy April 2025: Key Expectations

RBI Monetary Policy April 2025 – What to Expect

The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet from April 7 to 9, 2025, with the policy decision to be announced on April 9 by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra at 10 AM. Coming off the back of a 25 basis point (bps) repo rate cut in February, all eyes are on the central bank to see whether another cut is in store to counter fresh economic pressures.

A Quick Recap: February's Rate Cut

In February 2025, the RBI reduced the repo rate by 25 bps, bringing it down to 6.25%. This was a strategic move aimed at supporting economic growth amid signs of easing inflation. The rate cut marked the central bank’s first such move in the current easing cycle, signaling a shift in focus from inflation control to growth support.

Will the RBI Cut Rates Again?

According to consensus among economists, the likelihood of another 25 bps rate cut remains high. The push for further monetary easing stems from new external challenges that threaten to slow down India’s growth trajectory. A key concern is the recent imposition of a 26% tariff by the United States on Indian imports, which is expected to dent India's GDP growth for FY26.

U.S. Tariffs and Their Economic Impact

The new tariffs are expected to shave off 20 to 40 basis points from India’s GDP growth for FY2025-26. The RBI had earlier projected the economy to grow at 6.7% for the year, but analysts now expect it could slip closer to 6.1%. Such external shocks typically necessitate policy interventions to cushion the blow, and the RBI may be prompted to respond with another rate cut to maintain economic momentum.

Inflation: A Manageable Situation

One of the key enablers for monetary easing is the current inflation outlook. The RBI has projected retail inflation (measured by the Consumer Price Index) to average 4.2% for FY2025-26. The quarterly breakdown is as follows:

  • Q1: 4.5%
  • Q2: 4.0%
  • Q3: 3.8%
  • Q4: 4.2%

This forecast suggests that inflation remains well within the RBI’s comfort zone of 4% (+/- 2%), giving the central bank the headroom to cut rates without compromising price stability.

Liquidity and Policy Reform: What Banks Want

Ahead of the MPC meeting, Indian banks have recommended several changes to the RBI’s liquidity management framework. One of the major proposals is to transition from the 14-day variable rate repo to an overnight fixed-rate liquidity tool. The goal is to align liquidity tools with India’s new 24x7 banking environment, enhancing responsiveness and reducing volatility.

Banks have also suggested adopting the Secured Overnight Rupee Rate (SORR) as the new benchmark for policy operations. In addition, there is growing support for reducing the cash reserve ratio (CRR) to ease liquidity constraints further. If adopted, these proposals could modernize RBI’s liquidity toolkit and support more efficient monetary transmission.

A New Face at the RBI: Poonam Gupta

Adding intrigue to the upcoming MPC meeting is the appointment of Dr. Poonam Gupta as the new deputy governor. A former economist at both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, Gupta is known for her progressive stance on monetary policy. She has advocated for revisiting the inflation targeting framework and supports a more flexible exchange rate regime. Her views could bring fresh thinking into the RBI’s deliberations, especially at a time when the central bank is walking a tightrope between supporting growth and maintaining macroeconomic stability.

Key Takeaways for Markets

Market participants will be closely watching not just the rate decision, but also the tone of the RBI’s policy statement. Several factors will be under scrutiny:

  • Will the RBI maintain its accommodative stance?
  • How will the RBI address the impact of the U.S. tariffs?
  • What is the central bank’s view on liquidity and bank recommendations?

The answers to these questions will set the tone for equity, debt, and currency markets in the coming quarter. A dovish stance with additional easing measures could drive bullish sentiment across asset classes, whereas a cautious outlook might lead to consolidation.

The Balancing Act

The April 2025 monetary policy comes at a time when the RBI is navigating a complex macroeconomic landscape. On one hand, it needs to keep inflation anchored and maintain financial stability. On the other hand, growth pressures—both domestic and external—require proactive policy support. The decision the MPC takes will be seen as a signal of its broader economic priorities.

With manageable inflation, subdued global demand, and evolving global monetary policies, the RBI has some room to maneuver. However, it will need to weigh the timing and magnitude of its actions carefully to ensure that the recovery remains on track without igniting fresh price pressures.

Looking Ahead

The outcome of the April policy will likely shape expectations for the rest of the financial year. If the RBI decides to go ahead with another 25 bps cut, it could mark the continuation of an easing cycle that started in February. That would be positive for borrowers, markets, and businesses seeking cheaper credit. However, any move must also consider global spillovers, including geopolitical tensions, commodity price shocks, and volatility in foreign capital flows.

With a newly inducted deputy governor, an inflation path that allows flexibility, and a realignment of priorities considering external risks, the upcoming RBI policy holds significance beyond the interest rate number. It will serve as a barometer for how the central bank intends to steer the economy through uncertainty in FY2025- 26.


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