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Most traders know that a budget can be a significant event for the Indian stock market. However, often they don’t know how to strategize for it. It’s not so difficult after all! At Bajaj Broking, we believe that #BudgetSimpleHai! Therefore, in this blog, we’ll simplify how you should strategize for the Union Budget 2025.
Strategizing for a budget starts with understanding macro factors that can affect the equity market the most. As per many experts, The Budget 2025 is expected to have an increased focus on the agriculture sector with some tax reforms potentially taking place, such as the old tax regime getting phased out and introduction of zero income tax for those earning less than ₹10 lakh per annum. Balancing between fiscal consolidation and economic growth will be another prominent theme due to rising inflation figures.
When Finance Minister Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman presents the budget, she aims to beat its FY26 target of containing the fiscal gap at 4.5%. She’s also expected to improve spending on the physical, digital, and social infrastructure of the country.
If the government manages to retain the fiscal deficit within the target number, it is likely to be a positive move for the economy and the stock market. This is because any significant variation in the government’s spending or revenue can result in wild swings in the equity market.
If the government increases spending on the social sector, it will benefit the rural sector and provide more money for people to spend. This may give a boost to consumption and also to the stock market. So, if you’re an investor, you should watch out for consumption-led and infrastructure-driven stocks.
Having understood how to create a macro strategy for the budget, let’s delve deeper into this topic.
Macro factors that are affecting the market pre-budget are:
Expectations from the budget: Needless to say, budget-related expectations drive the stock market. It seems that Ms. Sitharaman will present a growth-oriented budget. Sectors like agriculture, infrastructure, consumer durables, automobiles, and banking may get a boost.
Inflation: While inflation has moderated a bit in the last few months, still it remains reasonably high. Food inflation has also been on the higher side. Due to this, the budget may announce some tax relief for the salaried class. However, it is believed that the stock market has already factored in such expectations.
Additional Read: Union Budget 2025: What to Expect for Automobile Industry
If we analyse how the stock market has reacted to union budgets historically, we’ll be able to get interesting findings:
The analysis shows that the stock market declines 2 out of 3 times in the 30-days period after the budget. This shows that the probability of the market falling after a budget is higher than the probability of it rising.
The likelihood that the market will fall rises to a whopping 80% if it has increased in the 30-day period before the budget.
As the stock market has risen in the last one month, it seems that it may fall after the announcement of the Union Budget on July 23.
In the last 30 years, it has happened only twice that the stock market in India was up both before and after the Union Budget-2006 and 2017.
If you’re a risk-averse investor, you should follow these strategies during budget time:
Volatility in the stock market tends to be high just before the budget and just after the budget. This is because uncertainty about the impact of a budget is very high in this period.
To avoid the risk of such volatility, you should not do too much in this period. This means that you should neither buy too much nor sell too much 2-3 days before the budget and 2-3 days after the budget.
When volatility around the budget day is very high and you still want to trade, you should use stop-loss orders, which will help you limit your losses.
If you are a stock investor, you’d have understood by now how to create a macro strategy for Union Budget 2025. In a nutshell, you need to see what the finance minister announces regarding the fiscal deficit, infrastructure, social welfare spending, and tax relief measures.
Announcements related to these factors are expected to impact the stock market the most. The sectors most likely to be positively impacted are infrastructure, automobiles, banking, and consumer durables.
In case you want to read in detail about fiscal policy in the context of budget, read here.
Additional Read: Union Budget 2025: Key Expectations
Disclaimer: Investments in the securities market are subject to market risk, read all related documents carefully before investing.
This content is for educational purposes only. Securities quoted are exemplary and not recommendatory.
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