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Union Budget 2025: What to Expect for the Gold Market

Synopsis:

The Union Budget 2025 is all set to be tabled on the 1st of February and when it comes to the gold market, stakeholders have certain expectations from policymakers. Here’s a look at what the Union Budget 2025 might have in store for the gold sector.


Apart from being one of the largest markets in the world, India's gold market also plays a huge role in the global gold economy. In the country, gold is one of the most popular investments as it is considered a comparatively safe one, even against any potential possibility of inflation and political instability. 

With the Union Budget 2025, all set to be held on the 1st of February, stakeholders have quite a few expectations for the gold market. With the buzz about import duties possibly increasing, the World Gold Council has also warned that the repercussions could lead to a decline in all the progress made by the country since last year’s policy changes.   

Here’s a look at everything concerning the gold market with regard to the upcoming budget 2025. 

Introduction

  • Why is the Gold Market a Key Focus Area? 
    • Gold has always been of great significance to Indian society and it happens to be one of the oldest investments as well. Gold holds a deep economic and cultural hold in India as it holds a very important space in many of the country’s celebrations. Even as a whole, gold plays a crucial role in the economy in terms of stability and as a hedge against inflation. It also helps strengthen the confidence of investors, supports the national reserves and affects the value of a country’s currency. 
    • With India looking to become the world’s third-largest economy, the importance of gold cannot be emphasised enough. Even during economic fluctuations, gold preserves the purchasing power of an economy and helps protect investments. Not just this, the gold sector is also known to support local economies and provide jobs in the economy. These reasons are precisely why stakeholders are hoping that the Budget 2025 turns out to be beneficial to the gold market.  
  • Role of Union Budget in Shaping the Gold Market

    The Union Budget, over the years, has played a major role in helping the gold market progress. Here’s a look at how some of the Budgets have affected the gold market. 

    • The Union Budget of 2018-2019 saw the government stating the intention to establish regulated gold exchanges. 

    • As a follow-up to this decision, the 2021-2022 Union Budget made SEBI the regulator to help establish these exchanges. 

    • The budget 2021-2022 also increased the responsibility of the Warehousing Development and Regulatory Authority to make it adopt a commodity market environment with provisions like vaulting and assaying apart from warehousing. 

    • The 2021-22 budget also lowered the customs duty on gold bars and gold dore to 7.5% and 6.9% from 12.5% and 11.85% respectively.

    • Budget 2024-2025 saw the cutting down of import duties on gold and silver from 15% to 6%, which ended up improving the demand for jewellery made of precious metals tremendously.     

Key Expectations for the Gold Market

  • Expected Budget Allocations

    The last budget i.e. Budget 2024-2025, saw gold prices becoming more affordable. The stakeholders, this time around too, are hoping and expecting provisions in the Union Budget 2025 that will make gold even more affordable along with certain other expectations. Some of these expectations include:

    • The expectation of a single regulator is a strong one this year. Right now the gold market is being regulated by RBI, SEBI, Ministry of Finance, DGFT and the Ministry of Commerce. 

    • Bullion refiners are also hoping for an increase in the margin from 0.65%, something they have been working with for quite a few years now. This can be done by decreasing the import duty on impure gold or gold dore imports, something the President of India Bullion & Jewellers Association, Prithviraj Kothari hopes for.

    • Senco Gold and Diamond’s MD and CEO, Suvankar Sen hopes that the budget will allocate funds to skill gold artisans, provide provisions to the middle class to buy gold through EMI and increase the infrastructural spending on gold to reduce the taxes and increase market liquidity.  

    • The Chairman and Managing Director of PNG Jewellers, Saurabh Gadgil, also hopes that by introducing incentives that further help reduce import duties and better the gold monetization schemes, demand for the market will increase. 

    • He also stated that seeing as since the export of gold contributes 5% to the country’s total exports, policies that help better the circulation of gold and reward sustainable practices can help boost these exports further.   

  • Policy Updates Likely to Impact the Gold Market

    One of the major policy changes that could impact the gold market after the Union Budget 2025 is if, during the budget, policymakers decide to increase the import duties on gold. This is something even the WGC or World Gold Council has warned policy makers against. As per ANI’s report, WGC has stated that if the import duties on gold are increased, the progress achieved by the market since last year because of certain policy changes would be harmed. 

    Policy changes regarding import duties could increase cases of gold smuggling and a drastic rise in gold prices in the country, as per the regional CEO for India at WGC, Sachin Jain.

Trends from Previous Budgets and Their Influence on 2025

The Union Budgets of 2018-2019, 2021-2022 and 2024-2025 all had certain provisions for the gold market that have come to affect the prices of gold today. Some of these trends included:

  • Establishment of SEBI-regulated gold exchanges 

  • The adoption of a commodity market environment by including vaulting and assaying other than warehousing by the Warehousing Development and Regulatory Authority

  • Lowering of customs duty on both gold bars and gold dore

  • Cutting down on import duties on both gold and silver

Stakeholders hope that these trends might influence this year’s budget and that the policymakers will look to slash the import duties on precious metals further to make them more affordable.

Challenges to Address in Budget 2025

  • Existing Issues in the Gold Market

    2024 saw an appreciation in gold prices by 28% between January and October. However, despite this, there are certain challenges that the gold market still faces. Some of them include:

    • With the rising demand for gold and silver, the supply for the same has not risen equivalently.

    • Mining regulations and permissions have become stricter across the globe.

    • Long lead times, sometimes up to a couple of years, on new projects end up affecting the prices.

    • India is also heavily dependent on imports and unless the country’s geology is explored further to satisfy the demands, in the long run, these imports could prove to be very expensive. 

  • Industry Expectations to Overcome Hurdles

    While there are certain expectations from the government when it comes to the gold market with regard to the Union Budget 2025, the most important one still comes down to a further reduction in import taxes and duties. This will help the country meet its demand while not proving to be too expensive because of the importing costs of the metal. 

Additional Read: Union Budget Process in 5 Simple Steps

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Disclaimer: Investments in the securities market are subject to market risk, read all related documents carefully before investing.

This content is for educational purposes only. Securities quoted are exemplary and not recommendatory.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the top expectations for the gold market in Budget 2025?

Answer Field

Some of the major expectations from the Union Budget 2025 for the Gold Market include:

  • The expectation of a single regulator

  • Increase in the margin for bullion from 0.65%

  • Allocation of funds to skill gold artisans 

  • Provisions to the middle class to buy gold through EMI 

  • Increase in infrastructural spending on gold to reduce the taxes and increase market liquidity. 

  • Introducing incentives that help reduce import duties

  • Policies to help the circulation of gold and reward sustainable practices to boost exports further

How can the Budget benefit the gold market?

Answer Field

Some of the possible benefits include:

  • Decrease in import duties

  • Increase in the supply of gold to meet the demand

  • Helping the middle class buy gold via EMI

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