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A Complete Guide: What is Bell Curve

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A bell curve is a graph of normally distributed data that has the shape of a bell. It has three important points: The middle point showing the highest probability and two decreasing points on both sides.

The financial world has multiple aspects that need careful study to make better financial decisions. If you are a beginner in the stock market, you might find the technical terms and analysis complicated. Today, let’s understand the bell curve, which is used widely in finance, to evaluate the market movement better. 

A Brief Understanding of the Bell Curve

Bell curve is a name given to a graph depicting probability distribution. It is called the bell curve because of the image it forms on the graph as you can see a perfectly symmetrical high with decreases on both sides. The highest or the peak point on the graph represents the most probable or average occurrence for a given database and both sides represent other events. Additionally, remember that the width of the bell curve is described by its standard deviation. 

How to Use Bell Curve in Finance

The Bell curve is used by investors to evaluate different price points and trends in the market. In most cases, the bell curve is used while modelling different possible outcomes like future stock prices, potential default rates, rates of future earnings growth etc. Let’s take a look at the usage of the bell curve in finance:

  • Finding Probabilities: In finance, the bell curve is primarily used to find probabilities as it gives a visual representation of probability and average for any given dataset.

  • Analysing  Data: The Bell curve is extremely useful in analysing data through a visual representation of different patterns and relationships. 

  • Making Predictions: Investors can use the bell curve to predict stock prices or values. For instance, in cases where it is known that data is normally distributed, the bell curve represents how likely it is for a value or price to occur.

  • Comparing Data Sets: Lastly, the bell curve can be used to compare data sets. If there are two data sets that are normally distributed, a bell curve can help see if there are any differences. 

Bell Curve vs. Non-Normal Distributions

It is common for many to use bell curves and non-normal distributions in conjunction to analyse the market. However, remember that there are differences in the way both represent a given data set.

A bell curve is considered to have a restricted or limited approach when it comes to data analysis. This is because stocks or any other securities in the market tend to show non-normal distributions that don't resemble a bell curve. 

On the other hand, non-normal distributions tend to have fatter tails than a bell curve which helps investors understand the negative signals as well for better investment decisions. 

Characteristics of the Bell Curve

Evaluating a bell curve becomes easy when you understand its characteristics. Here’s a list of characteristics that a bell curve graph has:

  • Perfect Symmetry: The bell curve has a perfect symmetry that gives it the shape of a bell. It has a peak in the middle featuring perfect symmetry representing the highest probability. 

  • Shaped like a C: The bell curve is shaped like a C with the middle part having a curve and two ends falling on both sides.

  • Two Decreasing Ends: Every bell curve has two decreasing ends on both sides representing events surrounding the highest probability. 

  • Standard Deviation: The bell curve is created using the formula of standard deviation. Additionally, remember that the probability and standard deviation on a bell curve share certain relationships like: 

    • Around 68% of the data lies within 1 standard deviation.

    • Around 95% of the data lies within 2 standard deviations.

    • Around 99.7% of the data lies within 3 standard deviations.

Limitations of Bell Curve

Now, before you decide to rely on the bell curve to analyse the market and base your investment decisions, it is important that you first understand the limitations of a bell curve:

  • Represents Only Normally Distributed Data: One of the biggest limitations of a bell curve is that it has efficiency only for normally distributed data. In cases where a data set is not normally distributed, the bell curve fails to represent a reliable image.

  • Might Lack Symmetry: Possibly the biggest advantage of using a bell curve is that it represents perfect symmetry that can be helpful in grading data. However, perfect symmetry is not possible each time. There are situations when there is a lack of symmetry in what falls above and below the mean. 

  • Not Applicable for All Types of Data: A bell curve is applicable only for a limited type of data. In the stock market, where stocks or other securities feature volatility, a bell curve fails to present a reliable picture. 

Conclusion

A bell curve is commonly used by investors to predict stock prices, value and other movements. While it has its wide set of benefits, a bell curve can be applied only for datasets that are normally distributed that makes it usefulness limited. Once you have understood its usage and limitations, a bell curve can be relied upon in conjunction with other types of analysing methods for an accurate picture of the market. To kick start your trading journey, make sure to choose a reliable platform for your demat and trading account.

Disclaimer: Investments in the securities market are subject to market risk, read all related documents carefully before investing.

This content is for educational purposes only. Securities quoted are exemplary and not recommendatory.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is a bell curve, and how is it applied in finance?

Answer Field

A bell curve is a graph used in finance to represent the average and probability of any given dataset that is normally distributed helps in analysing data and assessing future movements. In finance, the bell curve is widely used for risk management, predicting and modeling stock prices and value.

How does the bell curve help in understanding investment returns and risk?

Answer Field

The bell curve is used by investors to understand investors returns and risk through various methods. A common method used is the mean-variance optimisation strategy that relies on the bell curve to evaluate returns against potential losses. This helps an investor tailor their investment strategies and maximise profits.

What role does the bell curve play in portfolio diversification?

Answer Field

Diversification is a common strategy used by investors to mitigate through risks by investing in different types of assets. The bell curve is used for portfolio diversification by investors. This is done by first analysing the correlation between assets returns that helps an investor identify combinations that will eventually minimise the probability of risk on the overall investment portfolio.

How is the bell curve used in assessing stock price distributions?

Answer Field

A bell curve can be used in assessing stock price distribution by representing a graph of averages and most probable events surrounded with other events. This helps understand what value or price of stocks is likely to occur in the future.

What are the limitations of using the bell curve in financial modeling?

Answer Field

Just like any other graph in finance, the bell curve also comes with certain limitations. One of the limitations of a bell curve is that it can be efficient in financial modelling only when the given dataset is normally distributed, which is not the case for all types of data in the market. This limits the approach of a bell curve. Additionally, while a bell curve is known for perfect symmetry, there are many instances when the symmetry is not perfect in showing what falls above and below the mean.

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