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Interest Rate Parity: Meaning, Examples, Formula & Type

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Synopsis:

Interest Rate Parity is a theory that states that if interest rates between two countries are different, the exchange rate between their currencies Read more..will change so that there are no arbitrage opportunities. This is a fairly simple theory to understand the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates. It also helps investors predict future exchange rates based on interest rate differentials between two countries. However, it assumes that capital can move freely across countries, which is often not the case. Hence, as a theory, IRP has its pros and cons. Read less


Interest Rate Parity or IRP is a theory that explains the relationship between interest rates and currency exchange rates of two countries. In real life, exchange rates are a function of many factors other than interest rates, like trade balance, NRI remittances, foreign institutional investors’ (FII) inflows and outflows, etc.

However, interest rates are one of the most important factors that impact exchange rates. Hence, interest rate parity is an important theory for currency traders, economists, investors, and firms with operations in many countries.

Read this blog, as it explains what interest parity is, its types, examples, and formulas.

What is Interest Rate Parity (IRP)?

It is a financial theory that explains the relationship between interest rates and currency exchange rates in two countries. As per this theory, if the interest rates between two countries are different, the difference between them will get reflected in their currency exchange rates.

Let us understand it with an example. Suppose the interest rates in India are higher than the interest rates in the US. As a result, people from the US will invest in India to gain from higher interest rates. Hence, the demand for the Indian currency will increase in the short run. Therefore, the Indian Rupee should appreciate vis-à-vis the US Dollar in the spot market.

However, in the future, the Indian Rupee will depreciate against the US Dollar. Hence, INR will decline against USD in the forward market in such a manner that the differential interest rate earned by American investors by investing in India will be offset.

You may wonder why INR should depreciate in the future. Remember that the current interest rates are higher in India compared to the US. The higher interest rates in India can be due to risk factors, like high inflation. Hence, investors will demand a risk premium to invest in India. As a result, INR will depreciate against USD in the future.  

Understanding Interest Rate Parity (IRP)

Interest rate parity (IRP) is an extremely important theory in forex markets, as it connects interest rates, spot exchange rates, and forward exchange rates. First, let us understand the concepts of spot exchange rates and forward exchange rates.

A spot exchange rate is the current exchange rate between two currencies. A forward exchange rate is the exchange rate between two currencies at a certain point in the future. Under IRP, we have an equation that links the forward exchange rate between two currencies with the spot exchange rate and interest rates in two countries.

Please find below the formula for interest rate parity.

F0 = S0 * [(1+ia)/ (1+ib)]

In the formula above:

F0 = Forward Exchange Rate

S0 = Spot Exchange Rate

ia = Interest Rate in Country a

ib = Interest Rate in Country b

Based on the above formula for interest rate parity, there cannot be arbitrage opportunities in foreign exchange markets. Arbitrage means you buy an asset at a low price in one market and sell it at a higher price in another market to profit from it.

Uncovered Interest Rate Parity vs. Covered Interest Rate Parity

Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIRP) and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIRP) are important concepts that explain the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates.

As per CIRP, you cannot exploit arbitrage opportunities due to the differences between the interest rates of two countries because those differences are offset by the changes in the forward and spot exchange rates between their currencies. In this case, investors use forward exchange rate contracts to protect themselves against forex risk in such a manner that the interest rate differential between two countries is equal to the difference between the forward exchange rate and the spot exchange rate between their currencies.

As per UIRP, you do not use forward exchange rate contracts to protect yourself against forex risk. In this case, if investors expect high returns by investing in a currency, they should anticipate the value of that currency to fall in the future. In other words, they should expect the exchange rate between two currencies to change to offset the difference between their interest rates.

Example of Interest Rate Parity (IRP)

Let us take an example of the Covered Interest Rate Parity. Suppose the annual interest rate on US treasury bills is 1.5%, while the annual interest rate on Indian government bonds is 5%. Hence, an American investor wants to exploit this interest rate differential.

He will have to exchange USD for INR to buy Indian government bonds. He will have to sell a one-year forward exchange rate contract (because he wants to capitalize on the differential between the annual interest rates in both the countries). However, he will be able to earn only 1.5% (and not 5%) in the case of covered interest rate parity because otherwise, the no-arbitrage condition will not hold true.

Pros and Cons of Interest Rate Parity (IRP) 

Pros of Interest Rate Parity:

  1. Removes the possibility of arbitrage: If not for interest rate parity, it would be possible for investors to make riskless profits by exploiting interest rate differentials using exchange rates between two countries.

  2. Helps estimate exchange rates in the future: Using IRP, investors can predict future exchange rates based on interest rate differentials between two countries. This can be helpful specifically for investors who invest in multiple countries and businesses with operations in several geographies.

Cons of Interest Rate Parity:

  1. Money may not move freely across countries: IRP assumes that capital can move freely from one country to another. However, in reality, many factors can hinder the movement of capital across countries, like tax rules and government policies.

  2. Simplistic assumption about exchange rates: IRP assumes that exchange rates depend upon interest rate differential between two countries. However, exchange rates often depend upon many other factors, like inflation, political stability, etc.

Conclusion

If you have a trading account and participate in the forex market, you must understand the interest rate parity theory. This theory is important even for those who work in finance departments of MNCs with operations in many countries. Even if you have a trading account to participate only in the Indian stock market, you should learn the concept of IRP because it can help you understand how capital moves from one market to another.

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Disclaimer: Investments in the securities market are subject to market risk, read all related documents carefully before investing.

This content is for educational purposes only. Securities quoted are exemplary and not recommendatory.

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