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Bajaj Housing Finance Q4FY25 Results Preview: Strong Profit Growth and Technical Breakout Signal Uptrend

Bajaj Housing Finance is expected to post a robust financial performance for Q4 FY24-25, backed by strong net profit growth, stable margins, and controlled expenses. Analysts forecast a 61% year-on-year (YoY) surge in profit after tax, indicating resilient business fundamentals despite a high-interest environment. The company has also shown consistent asset growth and efficiency in managing credit costs. From a market perspective, the stock has gained 4% year-to-date and recently broke out of a consolidation pattern, strengthening investor sentiment ahead of the earnings release.

BAJAJ HOUSING FINANCE LTD

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124.83-0.20 (-0.15 %)

Updated - 28 April 2025
125.49day high
DAY HIGH
122.25day low
DAY LOW
30209140
VOLUME (BSE)

Key Highlights

  • Profit after tax is projected to grow by 61% YoY to Rs.613 crore, signalling strong operational performance.

  • Net interest income (NII) is estimated to rise 34% YoY to Rs.844 crore, reflecting consistent AUM growth.

  • Pre-provision operating profit (PPoP) is expected to grow 45% YoY to Rs.761 crore, aided by cost control.

  • Net interest margin (NIM) is likely to remain stable at 3.4% QoQ, as cost of borrowing normalises.

  • Operating expenses are projected to rise 8% YoY, with the cost-to-AUM ratio declining 12 basis points YoY to 0.75%.

  • Credit cost is expected to remain low at 12 bps, down from 16 bps YoY, showing asset quality stability.

  • The stock recently broke out from a channel pattern and reached Rs.131, with analysts suggesting a target of Rs.170 and key supports at Rs.124–117, Rs.113–111, and stop loss at Rs.108.

Bajaj Housing Finance Q4FY25 Estimates

Metric

Estimate (Q4 FY25)

YoY Change

Profit After Tax (PAT)

Rs.613 crore

↑ 61%

Net Interest Income (NII)

Rs.844 crore

↑ 34%

Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPoP)

Rs.761 crore

↑ 45%

AUM Growth (QoQ)

5.6%

In line with trend

Net Interest Margin (NIM)

3.4%

Stable QoQ

Cost-to-AUM Ratio

0.75%

↓ 12 bps YoY

Credit Cost

12 bps

↓ from 16 bps YoY

YTD Stock Movement

+4%

Recovery trend

Strategic and Operational Insights

Bajaj Housing Finance has demonstrated operational discipline and consistent execution across quarters. The expected stability in NIM, despite elevated borrowing costs, reflects its strong pricing strategy. The company’s efficient cost structure, visible in declining cost ratios, strengthens its profitability base. With AUM growth maintaining pace and credit cost under control, the fundamentals remain intact. The company’s historical focus on secured lending, combined with efficient sourcing, continues to support bottom-line growth.

Investor Outlook and Market Movement

Technically, Bajaj Housing Finance has entered a bullish trend, having recovered from a January low of Rs.103 to a recent high of Rs.131. Analysts view the stock’s breakout as a confirmation of upward momentum. With all key moving averages now breached, market participants anticipate a medium-term target of Rs.170. Ventura has advised accumulation on dips between Rs.124–117, with further supports at Rs.113–111 and a strict stop loss at Rs.108 to manage risk.

Investors will closely monitor:

  • Management commentary on loan book expansion

  • Stability of margins amid changing interest rate cycles

  • Guidance on credit costs and future asset quality outlook

Bajaj Housing Finance’s Q4FY25 performance is expected to be strong across all key metrics, reinforcing its position as a high-performing NBFC. The results will play a crucial role in shaping investor expectations and setting the momentum for the upcoming quarters.

Disclaimer: Investments in the securities market are subject to market risk, read all related documents carefully before investing.

This content is for educational purposes only. Securities quoted are exemplary and not recommendatory.

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BFSL is acting as distributor for non-broking products/ services such as IPO, Mutual Fund, Insurance, PMS, and NPS. These are not Exchange Traded Products. For more details on risk factors, terms and conditions please read the sales brochure carefully before investing.

Investments in the securities market are subject to market risk, read all related documents carefully before investing. This content is for educational purposes only. Securities quoted are exemplary and not recommendatory.

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